23.09.202113:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the US session on September 23 (analysis of morning deals). Euro buyers are trying to win back yesterday's fall.

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Too weak data on activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the eurozone did not allow euro buyers to break above the resistance of 1.1723, which I emphasized today in my morning forecast. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above 1.1723 led to a false breakdown at this level and the formation of a signal to open short positions. At this writing, this signal continues to work out, but the bears lack activity, which casts doubt on the intraday downward correction. From a technical point of view, nothing much has changed. The same reports on the US economy are scheduled for the second half of the day, as they were released today for the eurozone. Plus, weekly data on the US labor market will be released, which may lead to a weakening of the US dollar's position in the event of a sharp increase in unemployment. The primary task of the bulls remains to protect the support of 1.1692, to which the pair did not even fall today during the European session. The formation of a false breakout at this level forms a good entry point for long positions against the trend, which will lead to a repeated upward correction to the resistance area of 1.1723, where trading is currently being conducted. An equally important task for the bulls will be to break through this range. Its reverse test from top to bottom will form an additional entry point into long positions already in the continuation of the EUR/USD growth with an update to the maximum of 1.1754, from which sellers were so active yesterday. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1776, where I recommend fixing the profits. Under the scenario of a decline in EUR/USD in the afternoon and the lack of activity around 1.1692, as well as strong data indicating the recovery of the US labor market, you can open long positions in EUR/USD after a false breakdown in the area of 1.1665. However, I advise buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only at the minimum of 1.1628, or even lower – in the area of 1.1604, counting on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

Exchange Rates 23.09.2021 analysis

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

It seems that the bears control the market. However, as I noticed in the morning forecast, a lot now depends on the resistance of 1.1723 and its activity. A break of this level may be a turning point for the downward trend. However, as long as trading is conducted below this range, it is likely that the euro will decline further along with the trend. In the case of strong data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US, a false breakdown in the area of 1.1723 will lead to the formation of a repeated entry point into short positions in the expectation of a further downward trend within the day. An equally important goal of the bears will be a breakthrough and consolidation below the support of 1.1692. A reverse test of this level from the bottom up will return pressure on the pair and form an additional signal to sell the euro with an update of the minimum of 1.1665. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1628, where I recommend fixing the profits. In case of further growth of EUR/USD in the second half of the day and the absence of bears at the level of 1.1723, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1754. I advise you to sell the pair immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points only from the new maximum of 1.1776.

Exchange Rates 23.09.2021 analysis

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 14 recorded a reduction in long and short positions. All this is a consequence of the wait-and-see attitude of traders in the early autumn of this year when the Federal Reserve System can shed light on its further monetary policy. A lot will now depend on how the US authorities solve the problem of the national debt limit, which is already putting pressure on stock markets, returning demand for the US dollar, which harms risky assets. This week, the situation on this issue should somehow become clearer. The demand for risky assets is also limited due to the high probability of another wave of the spread of the coronavirus and its new Delta strain. All this will force the European Central Bank to continue to adhere to a wait-and-see position and maintain a stimulating policy at current levels, which limits the upward potential of the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from 189,904 to the level of 186,554, while short non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 163,596 to the level of 158,749. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position rose slightly to 27,805 from 26,308. The weekly closing price fell from 1.1870 to 1.1809.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market in the short term.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1735 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case of a decline, the lower border in the area of 1.1675 will provide support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

*Analisis pasar yang diposting disini dimaksudkan untuk meningkatkan pengetahuan Anda namun tidak untuk memberi instruksi trading.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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