empty
 
 
19.07.2021 01:31 PM
GBP/USD: plan for the US session on July 19 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3743, where I recommended entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry points. The instant breakout of the support of 1.3743 did not allow us to form a good entry point into short positions since there was no reverse test of this level from the bottom up. The formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.3717 led to forming a good entry point into long positions. However, before going up by 30 points, there was a removal of stop orders (including mine) below the support of 1.3717, so this signal brought losses. The sale from the resistance of 1.3743 allowed us to compensate for the losses, and the pressure on the pound was only increasing.

This image is no longer relevant

From a technical point of view, the picture has changed. The lack of important fundamental statistics and a sharp surge in coronavirus infections in the UK continue to pressure the pound. In the second half of the day, the pressure on the pair may remain. However, we need to understand that we are very close to important local lows, which have a significant weight on the daily chart, and it will be harder to break through them. The ideal option for buyers will be a decline in the pound and the formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.3703, which was formed today in the first half of the day. Its protection creates a signal to open long positions in the expectation of recovery to the area of 1.3743, from which we observed a fairly large decline in the pair today. A break of 1.3743 and a test of this area from top to bottom, together with weak data on the US economy, will form a new signal to buy GBP/USD, which will open a direct road to the maximum of 1.3771, where the moving averages are playing on the sellers' side. The longer-term target remains the resistance of 1.3800, where I recommend taking the profit. If the pressure on GBP/USD persists in the second half of the day, and the bulls will not be able to offer anything in the support area of 1.3703, it is best to postpone long positions until the level of 1.3674 is updated, or you can buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day from the minimum of 1.3639. Remember that you are trading against a downward trend, so be careful with purchases.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The initial task of the bears is now to protect the resistance of 1.3743, which they perfectly coped within the first half of the day, forming an entry point into short positions. In the case of an upward correction of the pair during the American session, only the formation of a false breakdown will form another good signal to sell the pound, which will push the pair to the local minimum of 1.3703, for which the main struggle is now unfolding. Its breakdown, together with strong construction data from NAB in the US, will lead to the demolition of several buyers' stop orders and collapse GBP/USD to another low of 1.3674, indicating the continuation of the downward trend in the short term. A more distant target will be the area of 1.3639, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the absence of active actions of sellers in the area of 1.3743: I recommend postponing sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.3771, from which you can sell the pair immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. There are also moving averages that play on the sellers' side.

This image is no longer relevant

The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for July 6 recorded an increase in both long and short positions, which led to an increase in the net position. Despite the weak fundamental data on the UK GDP growth rate in May this year, the pound continues to be in demand after the correction observed during the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. Now, after a major movement of GBP/USD down, traders are showing special interest. Moreover, the May data is not an obstacle to building up long positions. Everyone is waiting for more active economic growth in the summer period, even despite the Indian strain of coronavirus. However, the pound's growth may be limited due to a sharp increase in the incidence of diseases in the summer. The fact that the British regulator will not rush to change the bond purchase program is also a deterrent to the upward trend. While serious inflationary pressure in the UK will not be noticed, the Bank of England is unlikely to rush to change its policy. Despite this, the optimal scenario remains the purchase of the pound with each good decline in pair with the US dollar. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 51,596 to the level of 57,232, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 33,873 to the level of 35,329. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased to 21,903 against 17,723. The closing price of last week decreased and amounted to 1.3853 against 1.3878.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates that the pound will continue to decline in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of growth, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.3745 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Dapatkan keuntungan dari perubahan nilai mata uang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Unduh MetaTrader 4 dan buka perdagangan pertama Anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    GABUNG KONTES
  • Chancy Deposit
    Isi akun Anda sebesar $3000 dan dapatkan $8000 lebih banyak!
    Pada Maret kami mengundi $8000 dalam promo Chancy Deposit!
    Dapatkan kesempatan untuk menang dengan melakukan deposit sebesar $3000 pada akun trading Anda. Setelah memenuhi persyaratan ini, Anda telah menjadi partisipan promo.
    GABUNG KONTES
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up akun anda dengan dana minimal $500, daftar kontes, dan dapatkan peluang untuk memenangkan perangkat seluler.
    GABUNG KONTES
  • 100% Bonus
    Kesempatan langka untuk mendapatkan bonus 100% pada deposit anda
    DAPATKAN BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Ajukan bonus 55% pada setiap deposit anda
    DAPATKAN BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Raih bonus 30% setiap kali anda top up
    DAPATKAN BONUS

Artikel yang direkomendasikan

Tidak bisa bicara sekarang?
Tanyakan pertanyaan anda lewat chat.
Widget callback