empty
 
 
20.10.2021 01:32 PM
GBP/USD: the plan for the American session on October 20 (analysis of morning deals). Demand for the pound weakened as inflation in the UK slowed

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In the first half of the day, several excellent signals were formed to sell the pound at around 1.3788. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry points into the market. I paid attention to 1.3788 and advised to act depending on the situation: a false breakdown and a reverse test of this area led to the formation of a signal to open short positions. But even if you did not have time to enter the market the first time, a similar situation was formed by the middle of the day, and weak inflation data in the UK discouraged traders from fighting, which dumped the pound in the 1.3748 area. There was not enough of this area before the test, so there were no signals to enter the market. In the afternoon, the technical picture changed slightly.

Buyers need to think about how to regain control over the 1.3788 level, and it is not yet clear who can help them with this. In the afternoon, we should not forget about several interviews with representatives of the Federal Reserve System - yesterday's speeches by politicians allowed the US dollar to strengthen its position against the pound seriously. The situation may repeat. Only a breakthrough and consolidation above 1.3788 with a reverse test from top to bottom will return the bulls' hope for the pair's growth inside the day and form a new entry point into long positions, opening the possibility of returning to the area of the weekly maximum of 1.3828. A break of this range will resume the upward trend and lead to a test of longer-range goals: 1.3872 and 1.3910, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a further decline in the pound, the optimal scenario will be the protection of the 1.3748 support, which was not enough before the test in the morning. The formation of a false breakdown there forms an excellent entry point into purchases to continue the bullish trend. In the absence of active actions on the bulls in the area of 1.3748, the optimal scenario for a long will be a test of the next support of 1.3711. I advise you to look at long positions of GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only from the minimum of 1.3676, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points inside the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers are slowly but surely pushing the British pound, taking advantage of weaker inflation, which has slightly reduced pressure on the Bank of England in the short term. Most likely, today, the entire focus in the afternoon will be more on the protection of 1.3788 and on the statements of American politicians on the possibility of curtailing measures to support the economy by the Federal Reserve System. Only an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above 1.3788 and the formation of a false breakdown there form a signal to open short positions against the trend in the expectation of a fall to 1.3748. An equally important task for sellers will be to break through and regain control over this level. The reverse test from the bottom up from 1.3748 will form a sell signal to reduce to 1.3711 and then update the minimum of 1.3676, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pound recovers and there is no willingness to sell at 1.3788, only the formation of a false breakdown at the weekly maximum of 1.3828 will signal the opening of short positions in GBP/USD. I advise selling the pound immediately for a rebound from the larger resistance of 1.3872, counting the pair's rebound down by 20-25 points inside the day.

This image is no longer relevant

The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for October 12 recorded a reduction in short and long positions. However, the former turned out to be more, which led to a slight recovery of the negative net position. Despite the bears' relatively active attempts at the beginning of that week to resist the bullish trend, buyers turned out to be stronger, which led to a further increase in the pound against the US dollar. The reduction of several problems with disruptions in supply chains, which shook the pound earlier this month, is now gradually returning to the market players betting on further strengthening of risky assets. Constant speeches and statements by the Bank of England representatives that it is necessary to take inflationary pressure more seriously also add confidence to buyers of the pound. The central bank's meeting minutes last week confirmed the regulator's intentions to take seriously the option of raising interest rates already during the November meeting – a bullish signal for GBP/USD. Therefore, the only problem that stands in the way of buyers of the pound is the US Federal Reserve System. Although they will not raise interest rates, they are also heading for a tightening of monetary policy. However, the British pound looks much more preferable in these conditions. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 48,137 to the level of 46,794.

In contrast, short non-commercial positions dropped from the level of 68,155 to the level of 58,773, which led to a partial reduction in the advantage of sellers over buyers. As a result, the non-commercial net position was - 11,979 against -20,018. The closing price of GBP/USD remained almost unchanged at the end of the week: 1.3591 against 1.3606.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by bears to turn the market to their side.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of growth, the upper limit of the indicator around 1.3828 will act as resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Dapatkan keuntungan dari perubahan nilai mata uang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Unduh MetaTrader 4 dan buka perdagangan pertama Anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    GABUNG KONTES
  • Chancy Deposit
    Isi akun Anda sebesar $3000 dan dapatkan $8000 lebih banyak!
    Pada Maret kami mengundi $8000 dalam promo Chancy Deposit!
    Dapatkan kesempatan untuk menang dengan melakukan deposit sebesar $3000 pada akun trading Anda. Setelah memenuhi persyaratan ini, Anda telah menjadi partisipan promo.
    GABUNG KONTES
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up akun anda dengan dana minimal $500, daftar kontes, dan dapatkan peluang untuk memenangkan perangkat seluler.
    GABUNG KONTES
  • 100% Bonus
    Kesempatan langka untuk mendapatkan bonus 100% pada deposit anda
    DAPATKAN BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Ajukan bonus 55% pada setiap deposit anda
    DAPATKAN BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Raih bonus 30% setiap kali anda top up
    DAPATKAN BONUS

Artikel yang direkomendasikan

Tidak bisa bicara sekarang?
Tanyakan pertanyaan anda lewat chat.
Widget callback