Trump won an important victory in the trade wars over Mexico.

On Monday, world media reported: the United States and Mexico reached an agreement to amend the North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA) - in favor of the United States. Thus, Trump won an important victory in trade wars. Now Canada has a very difficult position: either Canada will go to an agreement with the US, making concessions, or Canada will risk getting a significant deterioration in access to the huge US market.

For Trump, victory over Mexico is a major win in the domestic political game. Everyone knows that Trump is hanging a sword of Damocles about the possible links between his campaign headquarters (Manafort) and Russia - with the possible involvement of Trump in the kidnapping of information from the servers of the Democratic Party - and this is a real possibility of impeachment. The investigation has made a number of successes recently, and the possibility of introducing the issue of impeachment to Congress does not have a zero chance.

For the future of Trump, it is critically important that Republicans win the midterm elections to Congress in November this year - and in case of a win there is a real chance for Trump's second term.

In the US economy in recent months, everything is fine - growth results of the second quarter of added 4.1%, unemployment is below 4%, in some industries (mining, construction) have a real boom. Experts believe that Trump's tax cuts played a role here. Stock market: the S & P500 index overcame the highs of the year and reached new historical levels.

With this situation in the US economy, Trump has a good chance of winning his party in November. And for a second term, we have a new economic crisis in the United States and the global economic crisis that could well begin before the presidential elections in 2020 can prevent it.