EUR / USD pair

On Monday, unfavorable for the euro macroeconomic data, the currency itself rose by a few points, precisely only 25 points, but on the technical picture, this growth was of crucial importance. On the daily chart, the price was fixed above the trend line (blue) and the red balance line was below the price for the eighth session. Meanwhile, the Oscillator Marlin in the growth zone.

The trade balance of the eurozone in May amounted to 16.9 billion euros against the forecast of 17.6 billion and 18.0 billion in April (down from 18.1 billion). Retail sales in the US increased by 0.5% in June while waiting for 0.4%. Business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York for this month was 22.6 against expectations of 20.3, although, the index was 25.0 in June. The growth of the euro against the data may indicate a rather strong mood of investors to buy a single currency. However, we do not expect a prolonged such mood. In the current situation, the target is the maximum of June 14 at 1.1852. The penetration of the level will open the way to 1.1996 with the maximum from May 14. But on this, we believe that corrective growth can be completed.

Today, the industrial output for the United States in June will be released. It is expected to grow by 0.5% with an increase in capacity utilization from 77.9% to 78.4%. Against this background, the euro will grow more difficult, unless some noticeable political factor interferes, clearly in favor of the dollar.

On the H4 chart, the price was also fixed above the trend line. Oscillator Marlin points to the transition to an upward trend.